异质性视角下长三角城市群碳达峰影响因素研究

Influencing factors and countermeasures of carbon peaking in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from the heterogeneity perspective

在测算2005—2019年长三角城市群二氧化碳排放量的基础上,利用拓展后的STIRPAT模型识别了不同城镇化阶段的城市碳达峰的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:2005—2019年,长三角城市群二氧化碳排放量整体呈上升趋势,但增速放缓,碳强度不断下降,碳排放和经济增长逐渐呈现出脱钩趋势。除影响最大的人口和人均GDP因素外,其他驱动因素对碳达峰的影响程度和方向在不同城镇化阶段城市间存在着较大差异,城镇化程度不同的城市能够实现达峰目标的情景显著不同。基于研究结果,分别就初级、中级和高级城镇化阶段城市完成碳达峰关键任务提出对策建议。

This paper calculates the CARBON dioxide emissions of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations from 2005 to 2019, uses the extended STIRPAT model to identify the main influencing factors of urban carbon emissions in different stages of urbanization, and studies the time points and peak quantities of COpeaks in urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta under three different scenarios. The results show that: Firstly, carbon dioxide emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration showed an overall upward trend from 2005 to 2019, but the growth rate slowed down. Meanwhile, carbon intensity continued to decline, and carbon emissions and economic growth gradually showed a decoupling trend. Secondly, except for population and per capita GDP, the degree and direction of the impact of other driving factors on carbon emissions are different in cities at different stages of urbanization. Thirdly, cities with different degrees of urbanization have different scenarios to achieve the peak goal. Finally, based on the influencing factors and scenario prediction results, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for the key tasks of carbon peak in primary, intermediate and advanced urbanization cities respectively.