新发展理念驱动下绿色创新对碳排放的影响及其机制研究--基于连续型双重差分的经验证据

Research on the Impact of Green Innovation on Carbon Emissions and Its Mechanism Driven by the New Development Concept—Empirical Evidence Based on Continuous DID

新发展理念作为社会发展的思想引领,指导绿色创新活动,进而对碳排放行为产生关键约束作用。本文基于2005—2019年省级面板数据,运用连续型双重差分法与中介效应模型实证分析新发展理念提出下绿色创新对碳排放的影响及其异质性与作用机制。研究发现:第一,新发展理念提出对碳排放存在显著的抑制效果,并且这种效果在平行趋势检验等多重稳健性检验下依然显著;第二,异质性分析表明,新发展理念提出对碳排放的抑制作用在市场进程较慢的中西部地区相比于市场化进程较快的东部地区更为明显,而且在碳排放分位点较高的地区较之分位点较低的地区更为显著;第三,机制分析发现,新发展理念提出通过推动产业结构变迁之合理化与高级化而间接削减碳排放。本文从思维方式变革、行动方式变革和工作方式变革三个方面分别提出深入贯彻新发展理念、加强绿色创新活动投入以及强化产业结构变迁路径依赖等政策建议,以助力于“双碳”目标的达成。

As the ideological guide of social development,the new development concept motivates green innovation activities,playing a crucial role in constraining carbon emission behavior.Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2019,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of green innovation on carbon emissions,as well as its heterogeneity and mechanism under the proposal of the new development concept,using the continuous differences-in-differences(DID)method and the mediating effect model.The findings are as follows.Firstly,the proposal of the new development concept has a significant inhibition effect on carbon emissions,which is still significant under multiple robustness tests such as parallel trend tests.Secondly,the heterogeneity analysis reveals that the inhibition effect on carbon emissions is more obvious in the central and western regions with slower market processes than in the eastern regions with faster market processes,as well as in the higher carbon emission quantile regions than in the lower quantile regions.Thirdly,the mechanism analysis shows that the proposal of the new development concept can reduce carbon emissions indirectly by promoting the rationalization and advancement of industrial structure changes.Therefore,based on three aspects of thinking mode change,acting mode change and working mode change,this paper puts forward several policy suggestions,such as thoroughly implementing the new development concept,increasing the investment in green innovation activities,and strengthening the path dependence of industrial structure change,to achieve the strategic objective of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.