“一带一路”倡议对沿线省域对外直接投资的效应研究--基于DID方法的实证分析

Research on the Effect of the"The Belt and Road"Initiative on the OFDI of Provinces:An Empirical Analysis based on DID Method

“一带一路”倡议提出对中国对外直接投资发展产生了重大影响。文章基于2011—2020年省级面板数据,运用双重差分法(DID)模型实证检验了“一带一路”倡议对沿线省域对外直接投资的政策效应。研究结果表明:“一带一路”倡议显著促进了沿线省域的对外直接投资;从地区异质性分析发现,相对来说“一带”地区更为明显,“一带”地区西部对外直接投资水平的提升显著高于东部;在影响机制方面,GDP增长速度越快、政府财政预算支出收入比越高对当地对外直接投资增长的抑制作用越强烈,而地区外商直接投资会显著提升对外直接投资。“一带一路”沿线地区应当基于本地优势,因地制宜地发展对外投资建设,整合对外直接投资源、落实对外直接投资项目,国家应加大相应的对外直接投资支持,以推动对外直接投资发展水平的提高。

"The Belt and Road"Initiative has had a significant impact on the development of China's foreign direct investment.Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020,this paper empirically tests the policy effect of the"the Belt and Road"initiative on the OFDI of provinces by using the double difference method(did)model.The research results show that:Firstly,the"the Belt and Road"initiative has significantly promoted the outward direct investment of provinces along the line.Secondly,from the regional hetero-geneity analysis,it is found that the"one belt"region is more obvious than the"one belt"region,and the level of foreign direct investm-ent in the west is significantly higher than that in the East.Thirdly,in terms of impact mechanism,the faster the GDP growth rate and the higher the government budget expenditure income ratio,the stronger the inhibitory effect on the growth of local foreign direct investment,and the regional foreign direct investment will significantly increase foreign direct investment.The regions along"The Belt and Road"should develop foreign investment construction based on local advantages,integrate foreign direct investment resources,and implement foreign direct investment projects.The country should increase corresponding foreign direct investment support to promote the develop-ment of foreign direct investment.