“2021.05.10”新余冰雹超级单体风暴回波分析

Echo Analysis of"May10,2021"Xinyu Hail Supercell Storm

为了分析2021年5月10日新余冰雹,利用MICAPS常规天气资料、逐小时地面自动站观测资料、江西WebGIS雷达拼图资料、吉安多普勒雷达PUP产品等资料,对新余冰雹超级单体回波特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)南支槽不断东移加深、中低层切变、中低层西南急流、地面倒槽和热低压发展等多个有利条件的共同影响,是构成新余局部冰雹、雷暴大风的天气背景;(2)探空参数具有较强风暴强度指数SSI、较大的对流有效位能CAPE以及较低的抬升凝结高度LCL;(3)超级单体风暴回波强度组合反射率CR达到70以上、50强回波顶高11.1 km超过-20℃等温线高度7.7 km、有明显的回波悬垂以及三体散射回波结构;(4)产生冰雹的超级单体具有垂直积分累积含水量VIL和密度VILD的值很大达到上限,中层有径向速度辐合,高层有径向速度辐散,有利于风暴的发展和维持。这些研究结果对新余超级单体冰雹的监测预警具有一定的指导作用。

In order to analyze the hail in Xinyu on May 10,2021,the echo characteristics of Xinyu hail supercell are analyzed by using MICAPS routine weather data,hourly ground automatic station observation data,Jiangxi WebGIS Radar Mosaic data,Ji’an Doppler radar pup products and other data.The results show that:(1)The South branch trough continues to move eastward and deepen,the shear in the middle and low layers,the southwest jet in the middle and low layers the weather background of local hail,thunderstorm and gale in Xinyu is formed by the joint influence of multiple favorable conditions such as the ground inverted trough and the development of thermal depression.(2)Sounding parameters have strong storm intensity index SSI,large convective effective potential energy cape and low uplift condensation height LCL.(3)The combined reflectivity CR of supercell storm echo intensity reaches more than 70,the top height of 50 strong echo is 11.1 km higher than-20℃isotherm height of 7.7 km,and there is obvious echo suspension and three body scattering echo structure.(4)The supercell producing hail has vertical integral cumulative water content VIL and density VIL,which reach the upper limit.There is radial velocity convergence in the middle layer and radial velocity divergence in the upper layer,which is conducive to the development and maintenance of the storm.These research results have a certain guiding role for the monitoring and early warning of Hail in Xinyu supercell.