公共基础设施与区域社会福利增长的动态关系--基于鄱阳湖生态经济区的实证分析

Dynamic Relationship between Public Infrastructure and Regional Social Welfare Growth--Empirical Analysis Based on the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone

利用鄱阳湖生态经济区38个县(市、区)的数据,运用向量误差修正模型,对鄱阳湖生态经济公共基础设施与社会福利水平之间的动态关系进行分析后得到:交通、能源、通信、环境设施建设与社会福利增长存在负向长期均衡关系,教育、医疗卫生、文化体育设施建设与社会福利存在正向长期均衡关系。短期来看,交通、能源、通信与教育基础设施建设对社会福利增长具有正向效应,环境、医疗与文体基础设施具有负向效应;各种公共基础设施的长期协调性对社会福利水平增长的影响大。为了提升社会福利水平,短期可通过加大交通、能源、通信与教育设施建设,促进社会福利增长;长期应保持公共基础设施与社会福利之间的相互协调性,持续提升社会福利水平。

The paper employs the vector error correction model(VEC)to analyze the dynamic relationship between the level of social welfare and public infrastructure based on the data of 38 counties and urban areas in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone.The paper comes to the following conclusions:There is a negative long-term equilibrium relationship between the construction of transportation,energy,communication,environmental facilities and social welfare.There is a positive long-term equilibrium relationship between infrastructure of educations,health care,cultural and sports and social welfare.In the short term,the construction of transportation,energy,communication and education infrastructure has a positive effect on social welfare,and the environment,medical and sports infrastructure has a negative effect.The long-term coordination among various public infrastructures has a great impact on the growth of social welfare levels.In order to improve the level of social welfare,in the short term,government should promote the social welfare by increasing the construction of transportation,energy,communication and education facilities.From the long term,government should maintain the coordination between public infrastructure and social welfare so that continuously improve the level of social welfare.