江西省农村绿色发展水平测度及演变趋势分析

Measure and Evolution Trend of Rural Green Development in Jiangxi Province

农村绿色发展是实现乡村全面振兴的内在要求和重要支撑。在生态文明时代背景下,通过对江西省农村绿色发展现状调查与分析,构建江西省农村绿色发展评价指标体系,以2010—2020年数据为基础,采用平移修正熵值法和系统动力学模型,开展江西省农村绿色发展水平测度及演变趋势分析。研究表明:(1)从省域看,江西省农村绿色发展水平整体呈稳定向好发展态势,绿色农业经济与绿色乡村生活对其发展有显著的正向促进作用;(2)从市域看,2015年以前,除南昌、抚州处于较高及以上发展水平外,其余市域处于一般及以下发展水平。至2020年,除九江以外,大部分市域处于较高及以上发展水平;(3)2021—2035年,江西省域农村绿色发展态势仍处于整体稳定向好发展态势,各子系统间相互协同反馈良好,与各市域发展态势吻合一致。

Green development in rural areas is an inherent requirement and an important support for the overall revitalization of rural areas.Under the background of ecological civilization era,through the investigation and analysis of the status quo of rural green development in Jiangxi province,the evaluation index system of rural green development in Jiangxi province was constructed.Based on the data from 2010 to 2020,the level measurement and evolution trend analysis of rural green development in Jiangxi province were carried out by using the translation modified entropy method and system dynamics model.The results show that:(1)From the provincial level,the green development level of rural areas in Jiangxi province is stable and good,and green agricultural economy and green rural life have a significant positive role in promoting its development;(2)From the perspective of city area,before 2015,except Nanchang and Fuzhou,which were at a high or above development level,the other cities were at an average or below development level.By 2020,except Jiujiang,most of the cities are at a high or above development level;(3)From 2021 to 2035,the green development situation of rural areas in Jiangxi province is still in the overall stable and good development situation,and each subsystem has good synergistic feedback with each other,which is consistent with the development situation of each city.