辽宁玉米生长季气候特征分析及对产量的影响

Analysis of Climatic Characteristics of Maize Growing Season in Liaoning Province and Its Influence on Yield

选用1961—2019年辽宁省62个国家气象站逐日气温、降水量、日照时数资料和1985—2019年辽宁省玉米单产资料,利用统计学方法分析了辽宁省玉米生长季气象因子气候变化特征及对气象产量的可能影响。结果表明:(1)辽宁省玉米生长季气象条件具有明显的区域性特征,气温和日照时数呈西高东低、降水呈东南多西北少的分布特征;1961—2019年辽宁各地玉米生长季气温均呈显著增加趋势,1996年出现了气温气候转折点,降水呈弱减少趋势,周期性明显,日照时数呈显著减少趋势,经历了偏多期-稳定期-偏少期3个主要阶段。(2)1985—2019年辽宁省玉米实际产量、趋势产量、气象产量均呈显著增加趋势,2000年前年际变化大,波动明显。(3)从气象因子对玉米产量的影响关系来看,生长季平均气温、日照时数与气象产量均呈负相关关系,降水量与其呈正相关关系;玉米气象产量异常偏少(多)年生育期内降水普遍偏少(多)、日照普遍偏多(少)、气温普遍偏高(低)。

Based on the daily temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration data of 62 national meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2019 and the corn yield data of Liaoning Province from 1985 to 2019, the climatic change of meteorological factors in the growing season of corn in Liaoning Province and possible impact on meteorological yields were analyzed by statistical methods. The results showed that:(1) The meteorological conditions of the maize growing season in Liaoning Province had obvious regional characteristics. The temperature and sunshine hours were high in the west, and low in the east. The precipitation was more in the southeast and less in the northwest. The temperature in the growing season of maize in Liaoning showed a significant increasing trend from 1961 to 2019. In 1996, there was a turning point in temperature and climate,the precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend, the periodicity was obvious, and the sunshine hours showed a significant decreasing trend.(2) From 1985 to 2019, the actual yield, trend yield and meteorological yield of corn in Liaoning Province all showed a significant increase trend. The inter-annual changes before 2000 were large, and the fluctuation was obvious.(3)From the perspective of the influence of meteorological factors on corn yield, the average temperature and sunshine hours in the growing season were all negatively correlated with meteorological yield, while precipitation was positively correlated with it.During the period, the precipitation was generally less(more), and the sunshine was generally more(less). The temperature was generally high(low).