中国农业生态经济系统耦合协调发展评价与差异化分析

Evaluation and Differentiation Analysis of Coupling and Coordinated Development of Agricultural Eco-economy System in China

基于2004─2018年省级面板数据,分别构建了我国农业经济与生态环境系统综合评价指标体系,采用熵权法测算两者的综合发展水平,结合耦合协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数与空间马尔科夫链模型,分析了两者协调发展水平与时空差异演变特征。结果表明:(1)我国农业生态经济综合发展水平总体上都呈现上升的态势,农业经济综合发展水平优于农业生态环境,且增幅较农业生态环境高出0.75个百分点;(2)我国农业经济与生态环境具有高度耦合的特征,但耦合度呈现下降趋势,且不同地区之间表现有所差别;(3)我国农业经济与生态环境系统的协调发展水平呈阶梯式上升,协调等级常年稳定在初级协调状态,且中部相较于东西部发展相对均衡,协调发展水平较稳定,区域间差异是主要因素;(4)我国高耦合协调发展水平的地区对低水平地区具有较大的正向影响,但不同的相邻区域中也存在低概率的退化风险。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2018, the comprehensive evaluation index system of agricultural economy and ecological environment system in China was constructed respectively to measure their comprehensive development level by entropy weight method. The coupling coordination degree model, Dagum Gini coefficient and spatial Markov chain mode were used to analyze the coordinated development level and evolution characteristics of temporal and spatial differences.The results show that:(1) The comprehensive development level of agricultural ecological economy in China is rising, and the comprehensive development level of agricultural economy is better than that of agricultural ecological environment. The increase rate is 0.75 percentage points higher than that of agricultural ecological environment.(2) Agricultural economy and ecological environment in China are highly coupled, but the coupling degree shows a downward trend, and the performance is different among different regions.(3) The coordinated development level of China’s agricultural economy and ecological environment system rises in steps, and the coordination level is stable in the primary coordination state perennially. The development of central China is relatively balanced compared with the eastern and western regions, and its coordinated development level is also relatively stable. Meanwhile, regional differences are the main factors.(4) The regions with high coupling and coordinated development level have a great positive impact on the regions with low level in China, but there are also low probability degradation risks in different adjacent regions.