湖南省重点生态功能区生境质量时空变化及其预测

Spatial and Temporal Changes and Prediction of Habitat Quality in Key Ecological Function Area of Hu’nan Province

[目的]对湖南省南岳重点生态功能区土地利用变化及生境质量开展研究,揭示人类活动导致的林地减少与生境质量之间的关系,为该地区生态保护与经济建设的协调发展提供理论支持。[方法]基于2009,2012,2015,2018和2021年5期土地利用变更数据得到土地利用转移矩阵,借助InVEST模型和CA-Markov模型分析预测南岳重点生态功能区土地利用结构及生境质量时空分布特征,并运用双变量空间自相关分析方法探究林地与生境质量两者的相关性。[结果](1)2009—2021年研究区林地和耕地主要转出为建设用地;建设用地面积增加15.87%,其中45.37%,36.25%分别由林地和耕地转入。(2)2009—2021年该地区生境质量呈现出“先快后慢”的持续下降趋势和“西部高,东南低”的空间分布特征。(3)研究区林地与生境质量在空间分布上的正相关性逐渐增强,以林地和优等生境质量的高高聚集为主要表现类型。(4)南岳区2025年建设用地将增加4.36%,2030年建设用地面积将达到1563.53 hm^(2);未来生境质量将缓慢下降。[结论]生境质量变化与人类活动干扰导致的林地减少,建设用地扩张紧密联系,应加强对南岳重点生态功能区的资源与环境管控。

[Objective] Land use change and habitat quality in Nanyue key ecological function area of Hu’nan Province were studied to reveal the relationship between forest land reduction and habitat quality caused by human activities, in order to promote the coordinated development of ecological protection and economic construction in this area. [Methods] The land use transfer matrix was obtained based on the land use change data of 2009, 2012, 2015,2018 and 2021, and the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of land use structure and habitat quality in Nanyue key ecological function area were analyzed and predicted by InVEST model and CA-Markov model. Bivariate spatial autocorrelation was used to explore the correlation between forest land and habitat quality. [Results](1) From 2009 to 2021, forestland and cultivated land in the study area were mainly transferred to construction land. The area of construction land increased by 15.87%, among them, 45.37% and 36.25% were transferred from forestland and cultivated land respectively.(2) From 2009 to 2021, the spatial distribution of habitat quality in this region was higher in the west and lower in the southeast.(3) The positive correlation between the spatial distribution of forest land and habitat quality in the study area gradually increased, and the high aggregation of forest land and excellent habitat quality was the main type.(4) The construction land in Nanyue District will increase by 4.36% in 2025 and reach 1 563.53 hm^(2) in 2030. The quality of habitat will slowly decline in the future. [Conclusion] The change of habitat quality is closely related to the decrease of forestland and expansion of construction land caused by human disturbance. Therefore, resource and environment control should be strengthened in Nanyue key ecological function zones.