环境因素对中国不同地区甲状腺癌发病率的影响分析

The impact of environmental factors on thyroid cancer in different regions of China

目的:探索细颗粒物(particulate matter 2.5,PM2.5)、环境温度、紫外线辐射和绿色植被等环境因素对中国不同地区甲状腺癌发病的影响。方法:收集《2018中国肿瘤登记年报》中388个2015年肿瘤登记点的甲状腺癌发病资料,从公开的遥感地理信息数据库中获取2015年中国近地面PM2.5、环境年平均温度、年日照时数和归一化植被指数。使用地理探测器模型分析PM2.5、环境温度、紫外线和绿色植被对中国甲状腺癌发病率分布的影响,采用解释力(q)来度量。结果:PM2.5、环境温度、紫外线和绿色植被对中国男性甲状腺癌发病率分布的q分别为0.039、0.004、0.041、0.088,对女性甲状腺癌发病率分布的q分别为0.084、0.109、0.091、0.049;且两两因素之间的交互作用均大于独立因素的影响。在空间上,随着PM2.5浓度增加,环境温度降低,紫外线辐射增强,绿色植被减少,甲状腺癌发病率呈增高的趋势。结论:严重的空气污染、低温环境、强紫外线辐射和缺乏绿色植被可能是中国甲状腺癌发病的危险环境因素。本研究的发现可为研究甲状腺癌危险因素提供线索,同时对相应的风险人群进行超声筛查或有利于预防和早期发现甲状腺癌。

Objective:To investigate the influences of particulate matter 2.5(PM2.5),ambient temperature,ultraviolet radiation and green space on thyroid cancer in different regions of China.Methods:2015 thyroid incidence data from 388 counties were collected from 2018 China Cancer Registry.Datasets of PM2.5 concentration,ambient temperature,sunshine duration and normalized difference vegetation index were downloaded from public databases.Geodetector was applied to analyze the effect of selected factors by explanatory power(q).Results:The q of PM2.5,ambient temperature,ultraviolet radiation and green space on male were 0.039,0.004,0.041,0.088,respectively;which were 0.084,0.109,0.091,0.049,respectively on female.Enhanced effects were found when two factors interacted.Spatially,higher thyroid cancer morbidity was observed in regions with severe ambient pollution,cold climate,strong ultraviolet radiation and insufficient green space.Conclusion:Exposure to air pollution,cold climate,strong ultraviolet radiation and lack of green space might be the risk factors of thyroid cancer.These findings may help guide cancer prevention and warrant further investigations.