2008-2019年中国5~14岁儿童溺水和道路交通伤害死亡率分析

Mortality of drowning and road traffic injury among children aged 5-14 in China from 2008 to 2019

目的分析2008-2019年中国5~14岁儿童溺水和道路交通伤害死亡率的轨迹和变化趋势。方法利用2008-2019年全国疾病监测系统死因监测数据集, 按区域、城乡、性别、年龄分组, 应用轨迹模型拟合5~14岁儿童溺水和道路交通伤害死亡率变化的轨迹模型。结果溺水和道路交通伤害死亡率变化趋势呈现相似的下降趋势。溺水模型中, 5~14岁的东、中和西部农村以及西部城市男孩均属于死亡率最高的组别;5~9岁东部城市男孩、西部城乡女孩、10~14岁东中部城市男孩以及西部城市女孩属于中等死亡率趋势组别;其余组合属于低死亡率趋势组别。道路交通伤害模型中, 5~9岁西部城市男孩, 东、中和西部农村男孩和西部农村女孩、10~14岁中西部农村男孩以及西部城市男孩属于高死亡率趋势组别;5~9岁、10~14岁的东部城市女孩属于低死亡率趋势组别;其余组合死亡率中等。结论中国儿童溺水和道路交通伤害的死亡率随年份变化的轨迹存在不同组别分类, 识别中国儿童伤害死亡率随年代变化的轨迹, 有助于开展更具有针对性的预防工作。

Objective To analyze the trajectory of drowning and road traffic injury mortality among children aged 5-14 years in China from 2008 to 2019.Methods Mortality data of unintentional injuries were from the Mortality Surveillance Data Set of National Disease Surveillance System from 2009 to 2018 and grouped by regions,urban and rural areas,genders,and age groups.The trajectory model was used to analyze the trend of drowning and road traffic injury mortality with years.Results The mortality of drowning and road traffic injury showed a similar trend.In the trajectory model of drowning mortality,east,middle and west rural boys and western urban boys of all ages belonged to the high mortality group.The moderate mortality group included eastern urban boys and western girls aged 5-9 years and also contained eastern and middle urban boys and western urban girls aged 10-14 years.The other combinations belonged to the low mortality group.In the trajectory model of road traffic injury mortality,western urban boys,all rural boys and western rural girls aged 5-9 years,middle and western rural boys and western urban boys aged 10-14 years belonged to the high mortality group.Eastern urban girls aged 5-9 years and 10-14 years belonged to the low mortality group.The other combinations belonged to the moderate mortality group.Conclusion There are different groups in the trajectory model of drowning and road traffic injury mortality among children in China.Identifying the trajectory of injury mortality is helpful to carry out more targeted prevention in China.