基于山东电力现货市场的新能源电站盈亏策略研究

Research on Profit and Loss Strategy of Renewable Energy Station in Shandong Power Spot Market

在我国新一轮电力体制改革背景下,电力市场建设进程进一步加快,多个省份相继开展现货结算试运行。现货市场充分发挥了发现价格、配置资源、形成充分竞争的作用。然而,新能源的不确定性与反市场特性,使其如何参与现货市场成为备受关注的问题。根据山东电力现货市场的试运行情况,新能源主体并没有找到相应的盈利策略,自主参与市场的意愿不强。首先介绍山东电力现货市场架构和相应规则,以及新能源参与现货市场的机制。在此基础上,深入研究自主参与中长期交易的新能源电站结算电价的数学模型,并选取两家典型新能源电站,通过结算试运行的结果,分析结算相关成分数据曲线。最后,得出结论并在合约签订策略、日前报价方式、预测准确性方面给出对新能源主体启示。

Under the background of the new round of power system reform in China,the construction process of the power market has been further accelerated,and many provinces have successively carried out the trial operation of spot settlement.The spot market has given full play to the role of price discovery,resource allocation and full competition.However,due to the uncertainty and anti⁃market characteristics of new energy,how to participate in the spot market has become a concern.According to the trial operation of the Shandong power spot market,the main body of renewable energy has not found a corresponding profit strategy,and the willingness to participate in the market independently is not strong.Firstly,the structure and corresponding rules of Shandong power spot market as well as the mechanism for new energy to participate in the spot market were introduced.Then,the mathematical model of the settlement price of new energy power stations that independently participate in the medium and long⁃term transaction was deeply studied.Two typical new energy power stations were selected,and the settlement related component data curve was drawn for analysis through the settlement test run results.Finally,the enlightenment to the main body of new energy was given in terms of contract signing strategy,day ahead quotation method and prediction accuracy.