产业结构合理化对碳排放影响的空间效应

Spatial Effects of Industrial Structure Rationalization on Carbon Emissions

在“碳达峰、碳中和”的大背景下,阐释产业结构合理化影响碳排放的理论机制,基于中国30个省级行政区的面板数据,运用解释力更强的动态空间面板模型考察产业结构合理化对碳排放影响的空间效应。研究发现:理论上,产业结构合理化通过结构优化效应、碳排放强度降低效应和能源消费优化效应影响碳排放。回归结果显示,空间溢出效应是研究产业结构合理化影响碳排放的重要因素,产业结构合理化和城乡收入差距抑制碳排放,碳排放强度、环境规制和城镇化促进碳排放。在我国由工业化迈向城镇化的过程中,产业结构合理化对碳排放的抑制作用变强,城乡收入差距的碳排放效应由促进转变为抑制。

In the context of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", this paper explains the theoretical mechanism of the effect of industrial structure rationalization on carbon emissions. Based on the statistics of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China, this paper uses a more explanatory dynamic spatial panel model to test the spatial effects of industrial structure rationalization on carbon emissions.The study found that:theoretically, the rationalization of industrial structure affects carbon emissions through the improved effect of resource allocation,carbon emission intensity reduction effect and energy consumption optimization effect.The results of the metrology regression show that: spatial spillover effect is an important factor in studying the carbon emission effect of industrial structure rationalization.Rationalization of industrial structure and income disparity between urban and rural areas inhibit carbon emissions. While carbon intensity,environmental regulation and urbanization promote carbon emissions. In the process of China’s industrialization to urbanization, the inhibition effect of industrial structure rationalization on carbon emissions has become stronger, and the carbon emission effect of urban and rural income gap has changed from promotion to suppression.