安徽省人工智能产业发展现状及对就业数量的影响

The Current Development of AI Industry and Its Impact on the Employment in Anhui

安徽省人工智能产业如火如荼展开,总体呈现出的特点是:中国声谷一枝独秀,合肥制造迈向合肥智造,芜湖、马鞍山机器人产业身手不凡。通过梳理近期研究人工智能产业发展对就业影响的文献,可以将其总结为三种效应:替代效应、创造效应和跨期时间效应。比较人工智能产业发达的北京市、广东省和长三角等地人工智能产业发展对就业影响的实地调研研究,发现上述地区跨期时间效应更为明显。鉴于安徽省人工智能产业发展与北京市和广东省等地有相似之处:安徽省人工智能产业发展对就业数量的影响具有跨期时间效应,短期内会有一定的替代效应,创造效应会逐步显现,替代效应大于创造效应,就业平衡被打破;长期来看,创造效应大于替代效应,安徽省就业总量不会出现大的变化。若人工智能发展到强人工智能阶段,将可能发生就业极化现象。为此,要及早应对可能发生的就业风险。

The AI industry in Anhui province is in full swing and generally characterized by the following: China Sound Valley is a standout, Hefei manufacturing is moving towards Hefei intellectual manufacturing, Wuhu and Maanshan robotics industries are in a remarkable position. The impact of AI industry development on employment can be summarized into three effects: the substitution effect, the creation effect and the intertemporal effect. We also compared field research studies on the impact of AI industry development on employment in Beijing, Guangdong and the Yangtze River Delta, where China’s AI industry is well developed, and found that the intertemporal effect was more pronounced in these regions. Given the similarities between the development of AI industry in Anhui and places such as Beijing and Guangdong, we argue that the impact of AI industry development on employment in Anhui Province has an intertemporal effect. In other words, there will be some substitution effect in the short term, while the creation effect will gradually emerge, with the substitution effect outweighing the creation effect and the employment balance being broken. In the long term, the creation effect is greater than the substitution effect, and there will be no major change in the total employment in Anhui. If AI develops to the stage of strong AI phase, the employment balance will be broken. For this reason, Anhui should respond early to possible employment risks.