物流业投资经济效应的测度与分析——基于西北地区和全国的对比

Measurement and Analysis of the Economic Effect of Logistics Investment:Based on the Comparison between Northwest China and the Whole Country

该文运用产出弹性系数代表物流业投资的经济效应,并利用全国、西北地区整体以及西北五省(区)1997—2019年的相关指标数据模拟了累计物流业投资和各产出指标累计值之间的函数关系,运用线性回归的方法测度了物流业投资在物流业产值增长、进出口贸易额增长、最终消费支出增长、旅游业产值增长以及区域GDP增长方面的产出弹性系数。结果表明,西北地区物流业投资的经济效应显著高于全国,但西北五省(区)之间物流业投资的经济效应之间同样存在显著差异,甘肃和青海受制于区域经济活力不足,物流业投资在贸易增长和旅游推动方面的效应显著不足。基于此,应强化物流业发展的先导性地位,加快物流业发展方式转变,提升物流业投资产出效率,西北地区特别是甘肃和青海应努力构建自身的产业体系,力争在国内国际产业分工中占有重要地位。

The output elasticity coefficient is usually used to represent the economic effects of logistics investment. Based on the relevant index data of China, northwest China as a whole and the five provinces of northwest China from 1997 to 2019, the author tried to establish the functional relationship between the cumulative logistics investment and the cumulative value of each output index. Linear regression method is employed to measure the output elasticity coefficient of logistics investment in terms of output value growth,import and export volume growth, final consumption expenditure growth, tourism output value growth and regional GDP growth. The results show that the economic effect of logistics investment in northwest China is significantly higher than that of the whole country, but there are also significant differences among the five provinces in northwest China. Both Gansu and Qinghai are limited by the lack of regional economic vitality,and the effect of logistics investment on trade growth and tourism promotion is significantly insufficient. Based on the above analysis, the article puts forward following three countermeasures and suggestions: We should strengthen the leading position of the logistics industry development;We should also accelerate the transformation of the logistics industry development mode to improve the efficiency of logistics investment output;The Northwest region, especially Gansu and Qinghai, should strive to build their own industrial system to occupy an important position in domestic and international industrial division of labor.