冬季白令海海冰范围变化及其对大气响应机制研究

Variations in winter sea ice extent and its responses to atmospheric forcing in the Bering Sea

白令海是冬季北极海冰变化最明显的区域之一,该区域海冰的季节和长期变化与局地的气候、水文环境和生态系统密切相关,并会影响我国的天气气候过程。为了识别该区冬季海冰的长期变化,基于Hadley中心数据,采用滑动t检验和线性回归分析方法对白令海1960–2020年海冰范围的变化趋势及其空间差异进行分析,并分析了海冰变化对大气环流等大气强迫的影响。结果表明:白令海冬季海冰范围在1960–2020年显著减小,20世纪70年代和2000年前后白令海海冰范围存在显著的均值突变。其过程中伴随着阿留申低压中心低压加强、核心位置向白令海西部偏移以及对应风场分布的变化,这个过程存在一个近20 a周期的振荡。同时,太平洋年代际震荡的相位变化可以通过改变海平面气压来调节经向风,改变进入白令海的热平流,进而影响白令海冬季海冰范围。因此,阿留申低压系统和北太平洋年代际振荡对冬季白令海海冰的变化起到重要的调节作用。

The Bering Sea is one of the most obvious areas with reduced winter sea ice in Arctic region. The seasonal and long-term variations of sea ice in this region are closely related to the local climate, hydrological environment and ecosystem, as well as to Chinese weather and climate. In order to identify the long-term variation of winter sea ice in this region, the trend and spatial difference of sea ice extent in Bering Sea from 1960 to 2020 were analyzed by using the sliding t-test and linear regression analysis method based on Hadley Center data, and the effects of atmospheric forcing, such as general circulation, on sea ice change were analyzed. The results showed that the winter sea ice extent of the Bering Sea decreased significantly from 1960 to 2020, and there were significant abrupt changes in the 1970s and around 2000. During these processes, the Aleutian low pressure center and low pressure were strengthened, the core position shifted to the west of Bering Sea and the corresponding wind field distribution changes. Such process has a nearly 20-year cycle of oscillation. At the same time, the phase change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can regulate the meridional wind by changing the sea level pressure, and alter the thermal advection into the Bering Sea, thus affecting the winter sea ice extent. Therefore, winter sea ice in the Bering Sea is mainly controlled both by the Aleutian low pressure system and the North Pacific decadal oscillation, as well as the gerneral climate warming.