福建自贸区对吸引外商直接投资的影响——基于合成控制法的分析

Impacts of Fujian Free Trade Zone on FDI Attraction:A Synthetic Control Study

为推动福建省自贸区更有效地吸引外商直接投资,运用合成控制法,通过对比处理组与控制组之间的差异,分析福建自贸区的政策实施效果,由此评估福建自贸区对吸引外商直接投资(FDI)的影响。福建自贸区对FDI流入的正向影响于2015年自贸区建立后的第一个季度开始显现,并在2017年第三季度达到峰值,随后逐渐减弱直至2019年第三季度起才开始得到恢复,这与同期全国自贸区政策全面铺开、中美关税战与美国制造业回流政策导向及福建自贸区本身制度创新不足等因素有关。为获取吸引FDI的持续性促进效应,福建自贸区应采取抓好系统集成创新及体制机制建设,持续深化投资便利化改革,借力《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》率先开放试点等多项举措。

To promote foreign direct investment attraction by Fujian Free Trade Zone,a synthetic control study is conducted to illustrates the effects of the policy implemented in Fujian Free Trade Zone by comparing the difference between the treatment group and the control group so as to evaluate the empirical impacts of Fujian Free Trade Zone on attracting foreign direct investment.The study found that the positive impacts of Fujian Free Trade Zone on attracting foreign direct investment began to manifest in the first quarter of the year 2015 when the Zone was established,reached the peak in the third quarter of 2017,then gradually weakened and rose again from the third quarter of 2019.This phenomenon is related to factors like the rising of competitive new free trade zones,the Sino-US tariff war,the overseas US manufacturer return to homeland,and insufficient institutional innovation in Fujian Free Trade Zone itself in the same period.To keep positive effect on FDI promotion,Fujian Free Trade Zone should go all out towards integrated system innovation,enhanced institutional mechanism,sustained investment facilitation and pilot trials for more open-up practice with leveraging RCEP.