化工企业碳达峰、碳中和路径研究

Study on Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutral Pathways in chemical companies

化工行业是典型的高碳排放行业,碳达峰、碳中和的目标任务极为艰巨,化工企业亟需探索低碳发展的路径。文章以某化工企业为例,分析研究对象的碳排放现状与特征,确定影响企业碳排放水平的主要因素,建立了以产品产量、单位产品能源消耗强度为核心参数的模型,构建了基准情景及多个节能降碳子情景,动态模拟了碳达峰、碳中和路径。研究结果表明:研究对象于2028年达到二氧化碳排放峰值,2060年实现碳中和。工业过程排放及煤炭燃烧排放是未来主要的两类排放源,能效提升措施能带来最显著的减排效果。根据研究对象不同阶段的碳排放特征,以及不同措施的技术成熟度、成本经济性,分阶段提出了行动路径。主要路径包括产品结构优化、能源结构调整、节能技术应用、资源循环利用、末端捕集封存利用、碳资产管理与自愿减排项目开发。

The chemical industry is a typical high carbon emission industry,and the task of reaching the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutral is extremely arduous.Chemical enterprises urgently need to explore the path of low carbon development.Taking a chemical enterprise as an example,this paper analyzes the current situation and characteristics of carbon emissions of the research subject and determines the main factors affecting the level of carbon emissions of the enterprise.This paper establishes a model with product output and energy consumption intensity per unit of product as the core parameters,constructs a baseline scenario and several energy saving and carbon reduction sub-scenarios,and dynamically simulates the carbon peaking and carbon neutral paths.The study results show that the study target reaches peak COemissions in 2028 and achieves carbon neutrality in 2060.Industrial emissions and coal combustion emissions are the two major emission sources in the future,and energy efficiency improvement measures can bring the most significant reduction effect.Based on the carbon emission characteristics of the study subjects at different stages,as well as the technical maturity and cost economy of different measures,we propose action paths in stages.The main paths include product structure optimization,energy structure adjustment,energy-saving technology application,resource recycling,end-capture and storage utilization,carbon asset management and voluntary emission reduction project development.