基于二级模糊综合评判法的水资源系统韧性评价调控模型及应用

Resilience Evaluation and Regulation Model of Water Resources System Based on Two-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Its Application

水资源系统韧性评价与调控对缓解水资源系统危机,促进水资源系统可持续发展具有重大意义。从抵抗性、恢复性、适应性三个维度构建了水资源系统韧性评价与调控指标体系,采用属性层次模型和熵权法分别确定指标主客观权重,运用博弈论思想对主客观权重进行综合集成确定指标组合权重,进而构建了基于二级模糊综合评判法的水资源系统韧性评价与调控模型,评价了郑州市2008~2019年水资源系统韧性,并通过检测指标韧性水平的异常值挖掘韧性调控指标。结果表明,郑州市2008~2019年水资源系统韧性水平总体上呈上升趋势,但韧性水平均处于中等偏下水平;水资源系统恢复性子系统表现最好,适应性子系统表现最差,为韧性调控的主要方向;人均水资源量、地区生产总值增长率、非常规水源供水比例、环保投资占GDP比例和生态环境用水量为韧性水平的主要扰动因子。

The evaluation and regulation of water resources system resilience is of great significance to alleviate the water resources crisis and promote the sustainable development of water resources system. The evaluation and regulation index system of water resources system resilience was established from the three dimensions of resistance, recovery and adaptability. The attribute hierarchy model and entropy weight method were used to determine the subjective and objective weights of the indicators respectively. The game theory was used to comprehensively integrate the subjective and objective weights to determine the index combination weights. Then the resilience evaluation and regulation model of water resources system was established based on two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The model was applied to evaluate the resilience of water resources system in Zhengzhou from 2008 to 2019, and the resilience regulation indicators were excavated through the detection of abnormal values of the indicators resilience level. The following conclusions can be drawn:(1) The resilience level of water resources system in Zhengzhou City showed an overall upward trend from 2008 to 2019, but the resilience level is in a medium or lower level.(2) The recovery subsystem of water resources system has the best performance, while adaptability subsystem has the worst performance and is the main direction of resilience regulation.(3) Per capita water resources, growth rate of regional GDP, proportion of unconventional water supply, proportion of environmental investment in GDP and eco-environment water supply are the key indicators of resilience level.