基于DEMATEL-ISM模型的新生代农民工返乡创业的风险识别

Risk Identification of New-generation Migrant Workers Returning Home for Entrepreneurship Based on DEMATEL-ISM Model

新生代农民工已成为我国创业群体中的重要组成部分,但对其创业过程中的风险因素尚未形成较为系统的解答。为了识别新生代农民工返乡创业的风险因素,根据创业要素理论和现代风险管理理论,文章从资源、市场、管理和环境四个方面归纳了13个新生代农民工返乡创业的风险因素,采用DEMATEL-ISM模型方法对上述风险进行了分析。研究发现,市场因素是影响新生代农民工返乡创业风险的关键因素,尤其是市场竞争风险和市场选择风险的影响程度更为明显。自然环境风险是影响新生代农民工返乡创业风险的根本因素,并通过其他层次间接因素的传导作用于返乡创业风险的形成。

The new-generation of migrant workers has become an important part of the entrepreneurial group in China,but a more systematic answer to the risk factors in their entrepreneurial process has not yet been developed.This study aims to identify the risk factors of the new-generation migrant workers returning home for entrepreneurship.13 risk factors affecting the new-generation migrant workers returning home for entrepreneurship are summarized from four aspects:resources,market,management and environment,based on the entrepreneurial elements theory and modern risk-management theory,and the above risk factors are analyzed using the DEMATEL-ISM modeling approach.Results show that the key factors influencing the risk of new-generation migrant workers returning home for entrepreneurship,especially the degree of influence of market competition risk and market selection risk are more obvious.Natural environmental risk is the fundamental factor affecting the risk of new-generation migrant workers returning home for entrepreneurship,and acts on the formation of the risk of returning home for entrepreneurship through the transmission of indirect factors at other levels.