基于PLUS的佛山市高明区土地利用模拟及变化特征分析

Analysis of Land Use Simulation and Change Based on PLUS in Gaoming,Foshan

为分析高明区未来土地利用变化特征,通过2010年、2015年和2020年三期土地利用数据,基于PLUS模型提取土地利用变化规律并模拟2030年土地利用状况。结果表明,2020年~2030年高明区土地利用变化呈现耕地、建设用地面积分别增加7.48 km~2、4.88 km~2,林地、水体面积分别减少9.19 km~2、3.09 km~2的“两减两增”特点,形成了城市周边主要以耕地转变为建筑用地,偏远乡村周边主要以林地转变为耕地的土地利用类型变化特征。研究结果有助于促进高明区土地资源合理配置,推进国土空间高质量发展。

In order to analyse the characteristics of Gaoming’s future land use changes,this study based on PLUS model and land use data of the three periods of 2010,2015 and 2020 to extract land use change patterns and simulate land use conditions in 2030.The results show that cropland and construction land increased by 7.48 km~2 and 4.88 km~2 respectively while forest and water bodies decreased by 9.19 km~2 and 3.09 km~2 respectively during 2020 to 2030,which has a “two increases and two decreases” pattern.The change in land use type is characterized by the conversion of mainly cropland to construction land around cities and mainly forest to cropland around rural villages.The results will help promote the allocation of land resources and advance the high-quality development of land space in Gaoming.