基于ARIMA-SVM模型的博物馆经书库TVOC浓度预测

Prediction of TVOC concentration in museum scripture libraries based on ARIMA-SVM model

为满足文物预防性保护需求,分别用ARIMA和ARIMA-SVM模型对某博物馆经书库TVOC浓度进行了预测研究。结果表明:ARIMA-SVM模型的精度高,能够较好地预测TVOC浓度序列趋势;基于ARIMA-SVM组合预测方法的平均绝对误差(MAF)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.0015×10^(-6)、0.0005和0.0055×10^(-6),印证了该模型预测博物馆TVOC浓度的可行性,可以为经书库环境调控提供科学依据。

In order to meet the need of preventive protection of cultural relics,the TVOC concentration of a museum s scripture library is predicted and studied by the ARIMA model and the ARIMA-SVM model,respectively.The prediction results show that the ARIMA-SVM model has high accuracy and can better predict the trend of TVOC concentration series.The MAE,MAPE and RMSE based on the ARIMA-SVM combined forecasting method are 0.0015×10^(-6),0.0005 and 0.0055×10^(-6),respectively.This confirms the feasibility of the ARIMA-SVM model in the prediction of the TVOC concentration of the museum,which can provide a scientific basis for the environmental regulation of the scripture library.