基于零截尾模型的事故频次影响因素分析

Interfering Factors of Driver’s Accident Frequency Based on Zero-truncated Model

交通事故大多与人的因素有关,驾驶员违规行为是交通事故发生的一大诱因。本文以2015年某市发生交通事故的21560位机动车驾驶员为研究对象,构建零截尾模型分析事故频次分布及其驾驶员相关影响因素。结果表明男性、驾龄短、有过严重违法行驶记录以及首次事故为违章行为的驾驶员具有更高的事故发生频次,驾校实行更严格的考核制度能有效降低事故发生可能。该项研究可从驾驶员角度为道路交通事故预警工作提供科学依据。

Traffic accidents are mostly related to human factors.Driver’s violation behavior is one of major inducements of traffic accidents.In this paper,21560 motor-vehicle drivers who were involved in traffic accidents in a Chinese city in 2015 are taken as the research object,and a zero-truncation model is constructed to analyze the accident frequency distribution and driver-related influencing factors.The results show that the male,the junior-driving drivers,drivers with serious illegal driving record and drivers whose first accident was illegal behavior have higher accident frequency.In addition,a stricter examination in driver training schools can effectively reduce the likelihood of accidents.The research can provide scientific basis for early warning of road traffic accident from the driver’s point of view.