高等教育规模对全要素生产率的因果效应分析--以高等教育扩招为工具变量

Causal Effect Analysis of Higher Education Scale on Total Factor Productivity--Taking Higher Education Enrollment Expansion as a Instrumental Variable

近年来,我国政府对高等教育在全要素生产率发展中的作用日益重视,大力发展高等教育,扩大高等教育规模,提升全要素生产率。在扩招背景下,高等教育对全要素生产率是否具有因果效应,仍需进一步探讨。针对上述背景,选择1990—2019年省级面板数据,将高校扩招政策作为工具变量,研究高等教育招生数对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,在扩招背景下,本专科及研究生招生数都对全要素生产率及技术效率提升有显著负向影响,但研究生招生数对技术进步具有促进作用。虽然当年招生数对全要素生产率的影响为负,但学生毕业进入劳动力市场后,研究生对全要素生产率的影响变为正向,本专科及研究生对技术进步均具有促进作用。

In recent years,the Chinese government has paid more and more attention to the role of higher education on improving total factor productivity,and began to vigorously develop higher education and expand the scale of higher education to improve total factor productivity.Under the background of enrollment expansion,the relationship between higher education and total factor productivity,and whether there is a causal effect,still need to be further discussed.This paper selects provincial panel data from 1990 to 2019 and uses college enrollment expansion policy as an instrumental variable to study the impact of higher education enrollment on total factor productivity.It is found that under the background of enrollment expansion,the number of undergraduate and graduate students has a significant negative impact on the improvement of total factor productivity and technical efficiency,but the number of graduate students has a promoting effect on technological progress.Although the number of students enrolled in that year has a negative impact on total factor productivity,the impact of graduate students on total factor productivity becomes positive after they graduate and enter the labor market.Both undergraduate and graduate students have a promoting effect on technological progress.