双轨外交与多边体系——俄罗斯在阿富汗变局中的外交策略研究

Dual Track Diplomacy and Multilateralism——A study of Russia s Diplomatic Model in the Changes of Afghanistan

源于长期战略规划、地区安全秩序和全球治理诉求等多重考量,俄罗斯使用相对实用的外交策略处理与阿富汗的关系。尤其是在阿富汗易帜前后,俄罗斯不断调整其外交政策,运用多种策略,最终成为阿富汗大变局中最具影响力的角色。从外交模式来看,俄罗斯通过“双轨外交”在阿富汗各派势力以及美国与塔利班之间实施战略对冲。同时,为了确保俄罗斯的阿富汗立场,创造性地提出以多方参与、多边协商的“莫斯科模式”替代美国的“民主改造计划”,力图用“多边体系”将阿富汗政治进程纳入俄罗斯主导的解决框架中。通过“双轨外交”加“多边体系”外交策略,俄罗斯优化了以阿富汗为中心的中亚、南亚乃至中东地区的地缘政治环境,为普京实施“大欧亚计划”奠定了良好的外部基础。

From multiple considerations such as long-term strategic planning,regional security order and global governance demands,Russia uses relatively practical diplomatic strategies to handle its relations with Afghanistan.Especially before and after the change of leadership in Afghanistan,Russia constantly adjusted its foreign policy and used a variety of strategies,eventually becoming the most influential role in the great changes in Afghanistan.At the same time,in order to ensure Russia s position in Afghanistan,it creatively proposed to replace the U.S.“Democratic Transformation Plan”with a multi-party,multilaterally negotiated“Moscow Model”to bring the Afghan political process into the framework of a Russian-led settlement.In the end,through the diplomatic strategy of“dual track diplomacy”and“multilateralism”,Russia has optimized the geopolitical environment in Central Asia,South Asia and the Middle East with Afghanistan as the center,laying a good external foundation for Putin to implement the“Greater Eurasian Plan”.