经济政策不确定性下的创新决策:企业韧性视角

The Innovation Decision-Making under Economic Policy Uncertainty:From the Perspective of EnterpriseTenacity

在经济政策不确定性条件下,如何增强发展韧性、提升创新水平是企业面临的重要问题。利用共同因子模型对中国上市公司韧性进行了估算,并探讨了经济政策不确定性对不同韧性企业的创新活动的影响和作用机制。研究发现,企业韧性水平的差异会使经济政策不确定性对企业创新活动的影响产生门槛效应,当经济政策不确定性上升时,低韧性企业会减少创新活动,高韧性企业会增加创新活动;企业韧性的门槛效应在不同市场化地区和不同产权性质的企业中均存在;不同韧性企业的创新收益预期、融资约束和管理层风险偏好对经济政策不确定性的反应存在显著差异,这也是企业韧性门槛效应产生的主要原因。此外,企业韧性在一定程度上可作为企业内部治理的替代,向投资者释放积极信号,从而帮助企业获得更多融资。经济政策不确定情境下的创新活动有利于提高企业经营绩效,对企业破产的负面影响并不明显。

Under the conditions of economic policy uncertainty,how to strengthen development tenacity and improve innovation level is an important issue that enterprises are faced with.By employing the common factor model,this paper estimates the tenacity of listed companies in China and investigates the influence of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the innovation activities of enterprises with different tenacitiesand their mechanisms.The findings show that the differences of the level of enterprise tenacity would generate threshold effects on the impact of the economic policy uncertainty on enterprise innovation activities.When EPU rises,enterprises with lower-tenacitywill reduce their innovation activities,while enterprises with higher-tenacitywill increase their innovation activities.The threshold effect of enterprise tenacity exists in different market regions and enterprises of different property rights nature.There are significant differences in the response to EPUof enterprises with different tenacityin terms of innovative income expectations,financing constraints,and management’s risk preference,which is also the reason for the occurrence of the threshold effect in enterprise tenacity.In addition,enterprise tenacity can be used as an alternative to the internal governance of the enterprises to some extent,which send positive signals to investors,thereby helping enterprises obtain more financing.The innovative activities under the EPU conditions will help to improve the operation performance of enterprises,but the negative impact on the bankruptcy of enterprises is not obvious.