人力资本视角下雾霾污染对长江经济带绿色高质量发展的影响研究

Research on the impact of haze pollution on the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the perspective of human capital

绿色高质量发展是新时代建设美丽中国的必然要求,直接关系“十四五”乃至今后更长一段时期我国社会主义现代化国家建设的新征程。文章基于相关文献的概要评述,通过理论分析提出研究假说,并下沉研究对象至长江经济带108个地级市,建构了2003—2018年雾霾污染(PM)浓度数据,同时,以体现高质量发展内涵的绿色全要素生产率表征经济质量,尝试将雾霾污染、人力资本与经济质量纳入统一框架;综合运用中介效应模型和工具变量法,揭示了人力资本视角下,雾霾污染对经济高质量发展的的影响效应及传导机制,深入分析了雾霾污染对经济高质量发展的反馈作用及其中介效应。研究发现,雾霾污染显著降低了经济质量,并且人力资本扮演着雾霾污染影响经济绿色高质量的中介传导角色。结果表明,样本期内以PM为代表的雾霾污染物每增加1个单位,绿色经济发展质量下降8.4个百分点;雾霾污染影响经济质量的直接效应为-0.064,经人力资本中介传导后的间接效应为-0.020;进一步分析显示,雾霾污染对长江经济带绿色高质量发展具有明显的异质性,其中雾霾污染对下游城市人力资本的负面影响更大,进而对经济质量的抑制作用也显著高于中、上游城市,且2013年之后雾霾污染的损害效应出现加剧现象。在克服内生性、替换被解释变量、样本缩尾处理,以及滞后一期回归等一系列稳健性检验后,研究结论依然成立,其政策意义在于,可以为有效治理雾霾、助推经济绿色高质量发展提供有益的思考和启示。建议加强区域协同,引导各地区平衡环境保护与经济发展间的关系,推动经济质量稳步提升,推动共同发展;立足资源禀赋,促进区域内资源互补与功能融合,为长江经济带高质量发展添动力,推动特色发展;发挥集束效应,以市场化的规制手段倒逼产业结构绿色转型升级,加大医疗与教育等公共服务的财政投入力度,提高社会福利水平,积累人力资本存量,发挥人力资本促进经济发展的潜力,推动创新发展;优化联动机制,协同建立长江经济带责任共担、利益协调机制,推动优质发展,为加快构建新发展格局打造标杆。

Green and high-quality development is an inevitable requirement for building a beautiful China in the new era, which is directly related to the new journey of China’s socialist modernization for a longer period of time after the 14 th Five-Year Plan. The possible marginal contribution of the article lies in: based on the literature review, the research hypothesis is put forward through theoretical analysis, and the research object is 108 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, constructing the 2003-2018 smog pollution(PM) concentration data. At the same time, it is characterized by GTFP that reflects the connotation of high-quality development, and tries to incorporate haze pollution, human capital and economic quality into a unified framework. The mediation effect model and the instrumental variable method are comprehensively used to reveal the mechanism and effect of haze pollution on high-quality economic development from the perspective of human capital. The results show that for every increase of 1 unit of haze pollutants is represented by PMduring the sample period, the quality of green economy development decreases by 8.4%;the direct effect of haze pollution on economic quality is-0.064, and the subsequent indirect effect conducted through the intermediary of human capital is-0.020. Further analysis shows that haze pollution has obvious heterogeneity to the green and high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Among them, haze pollution has a greater negative impact on the human capital of downstream cities, which in turn affects economic quality. The inhibitory effect is also significantly higher than that of the city of the middle and upper reaches, and the damage effect of haze pollution has increased after 2013. After overcoming a series of robustness tests such as endogeneity, replacement of explained variables, sample shrinkage processing, and lagging one-period regression, the research conclusions are still valid. The policy significance is that it can provides useful enlightenment to effectively control smog and promote economic development in green and high-quality manners. It is recommended to strengthen regional coordination, guide various regions to balance the relationship between environmental protection and economic development, promote the steady improvement and common development of economic quality. We should promote the complementarity of resources and functional integration in the region based on resource, and add impetus to the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. We should promote the development of characteristics and exert the clustering effect, pushing the green transformation and upgrading the industrial structure with market-based regulatory means. We should increase the financial investment in public services such as medicine and education, and improve the level of social welfare, accumulate the stock of human capital, and give full play to the impact of human capital for the potential of economic development to promote innovative development. We should optimize the linkage mechanism, coordinate the establishment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt responsibility sharing and benefit coordination mechanism, promote high-quality development, and set a benchmark for accelerating the construction of a new development pattern.