江苏省流入人口的空间分布及其影响因素分析

Analysis on Spatial Distribution and Influencing Factors of Inflowing Population in Jiangsu Province

以区(县)为基本研究单元,分析了江苏省流入人口的空间分布和统计特征,通过构建全局OLS模型和GWR模型,定量研究了人口流动的驱动机制,并分析了不同区(县)的最值影响因子,结果表明:(1)江苏省流入人口呈“南多北少”的格局,空间分异特征显著,流入人口以汉族、有配偶的青壮年为主,且受教育程度普遍较低,流动原因以务工、经商为主。(2)第三产业占比、固定资产投资、夜间灯光、社会消费品零售总额对江苏省人口流入是正向影响,从业人数对人口流入是负向影响,医疗条件和生活保障对人口流入的影响有正有负。

Taking the district(county) as the basic research unit, the spatial and statistical characteristics of the inflowing population in Jiangsu province was analyzed. By constructing the OLS model and the GWR model, the driving mechanism of population flow was quantitatively researched. The research results show that :(1) The inflowing population in Jiangsu province shows a pattern of “more in the south and less in the north”. The inflowing population is mainly the Han ethnic group, young and middle-aged people with spouses, whose education level is generally low. Be engaged in industry and trade are the main causes of inflow.(2) The proportion of tertiary industry, the fixed asset investment, the night light and the total retail sales of social consumer goods had a positive impact on the population inflow in Jiangsu province,while the number of employees had a negative impact on the population inflow. Medical and living security had a positive or negative impact on the population inflow.