中国生育率现状及影响因素

Status and Influencing Factors of Fertility Rate in China

生育率是调节社会经济发展的决定性因素。近年来中国生育率持续走低,“低生育率陷阱”隐现,少子老龄化造成的人口结构失衡已开始制约社会经济的发展,威胁社会的稳定。生育率减低受国家政策、疾病和医疗以及社会经济等因素的影响。本文对近70年我国生育状况、影响因素及低生育率的潜在影响相关研究进展进行综述。以期较完整的概括我国生育现况,对预测未来生育率走势提供参考,探讨可能的干预靶点,旨在为稳定生育率在理想水平提供理论支撑。

A country’s fertility rate has decisive effects for social and economic development.In recent years,fertility rate decreases gradually,and the"low fertility trap"looms in China.The imbalance of population structure caused by the aging society with fewer children has begun to restrict the economic development and threaten social stability.Declining fertility rate was influenced by national policies,diseases and medical care,as well as socio-economic factors.In this study,we review the recent advances in the field of fertility status across the last 7 decades,influencing factors and potential impact of decreased fertility rate in China.We aim to describe the fertility status completely,predict the fertility trend in future,explore possible intervention targets,and provide theoretical support for stabilizing fertility in our country.