双碳目标下我国新型电力系统的构建与演变研究

Construction and Evolution of China’s New Power System Under Dual Carbon Goal

构建新型电力系统,对于实现碳达峰、碳中和目标至关重要,而对新型电力系统构建路径及其演变的探索则是重中之重。该文从我国电力系统的互联格局出发,聚焦构建新型电力系统面临的供应安全、平衡调节、供电成本等系统性问题和挑战,采用计及多种灵活性约束和基于时序模拟的广域电力系统源-网-储协同规划方法,以系统总成本最低为目标,兼顾源-网-储可规划容量、新能源发电量占比及源-网-储各种设备时序运行特性等条件约束,结合已有研究规划,系统性分析了2025、2030、2050及2060年中国7大区域互联电力系统风电、光伏新能源和新型储能装机容量,并在此基础上,分析了不同水平年全国互联系统新能源装机及占比、新能源发电量及占比、不同时间尺度储能装机及占比、新能源利用率、供电成本、同步机出力占比和碳排放等技术经济指标,并总结了其发展演变趋势,为构建新型电力系统提供技术和决策参考,有力支撑了我国实现2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的战略目标。

The construction of a new power system is crucial for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,and the exploration and evolution of the construction paths of the new power system is the top priority.Starting from the interconnection pattern of my country’s power system,this paper focuses on the systemic problems and challenges such as the supply security,balance adjustment,and power supply costs faced by the construction of a new power system.We adopt a source-grid-storage collaborative planning for the wide-area power systems considering various flexibility constraints.Based on time series simulation and aiming at the lowest total system costs,we take into account the resource-grid-storage planable capacity,the proportion of new energy power generation,and the timing operation characteristics of various source-grid-storage equipment,etc.Combined with the existing research plans,this paper systematically analyzes the installed capacity of the wind power,the photovoltaic new energy sources and the new energy storage in China’s seven regional interconnected power systems in 2025,2030,2050 and 2060.On this basis,we analyzes the technical and economic indicators in the domestic interconnection system at different level years such as the installed capacity and proportion of new energy sources,the amount and proportion of new energy power generation,the installed capacity and proportion of energy storage at different time scales,the utilization rate of new energy sources,the cost of power supply,the output proportion of synchronous machines and carbon emissions,etc.By summarizing their development and evolution trends,this study provides the technical and decision-making reference for the construction of a new power system,strongly supporting my country’s strategic goal of achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.