基于组合赋权二维云模型的堤防工程风险评价

Risk assessment for levee engineering based on a two-dimensional cloud model with combination weighting

针对堤防风险评价中风险等级判定主观性太强、风险指标具有模糊性和随机性等问题,采用改进层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法组合赋权的方式,提出基于组合赋权二维云模型的堤防工程风险评价方法。以现行堤防安全评价导则为基础,综合考虑运行管理、堤基质量、堤身质量、防洪能力、渗流安全和结构安全6个方面构建堤防工程风险评价指标体系,在此基础上计算各评价指标隶属于不同风险等级的二维云模型参数,并将结果以风险云图的形式输出,直观地判定堤防的风险等级。将该方法应用于黄河下游某堤防工程的风险评价,结果与实际情况相符,表明该方法合理可行。

Aiming at the problems of strong subjectivity in risk grade judgment,fuzziness and randomness of risk index in levee risk evaluation,a risk evaluation model based on two-dimensional cloud model with combination weighting was proposed by using improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method.On the basis of the existing levee safety evaluation criterion,the risk evaluation index system of levee engineering was constructed by considering six aspects,including operation management,levee foundation quality,levee body quality,flood control ability,seepage safety and structural safety.On this basis,the two-dimensional cloud model parameters of each evaluation index belonging to different risk levels were calculated,and the results were output in the form of risk cloud map,which could intuitively judge the risk of caution.Finally,the model was applied to a levee project in the lower Yellow River,and the results were consistent with the actual situation,indicating the reasonability and feasibility of the proposed method.