基于风险-均值分析的供应商选择与订单分配集成优化模型与求解

Integrated Optimization Model and Solution for Supplier Selection and Order Allocation Based on Risk-Mean Analysis

针对不确定环境下具有不同供应合约的供应商选择与订单分配问题,本文构建了基于风险-均值分析的模糊两阶段多周期集成优化模型。与传统的该问题研究并未充分考虑供应商选择与订单分配两阶段决策的交互影响不同,在该模型中,第一阶段供应商选择的评价目标依赖于后期实际运营中的订单分配决策;并考虑未来需求和实际运营成本的不确定性,引入在险价值和期望值两种决策准则对供应商选择方案的绩效进行评价。提出了该模型的分析求解方法,在险价值得以精确评估,期望值被控制在确定的误差范围内,并可以达到足够的精度要求。

An integrated fuzzy two-stage multi-period optimization model based on risk-mean analysis is constructed for the supplier selection and order allocation(SSOA) problem with different supply contracts in an uncertain environment.Unlike the traditional research on this issue that the interaction between the SS and OA decisions has not been adequately considered,in this model,evaluation objectives for the SS at the first stage depend on the actual OA decisions made later in the second stage.Considering the uncertainty of future demands and operating costs,two decision criteria,value at risk(VaR) and expected value(EV),are introduced to evaluate the performance of the SS decision.Solution approaches to the formulated model are designed,in which the VaR is accurately assessed,whereas the EV is approximated within a determined margin of error.