考虑消费者后悔行为的零售商预售及退货策略研究

Pre-sale and Return Strategy of Retailers Considering Consumer Regret Behavior

本文考虑消费者预购后悔行为,研究需求和消费者估值均不确定情况下,零售商的三种预售策略:不提供退货、退货不再销售和退货再销售的预售策略;探讨消费者后悔行为对零售商的预售价、订购量、退货额和预售策略选择的影响。研究发现:行动后悔越强,预售价格越低,对零售商的收益越不利;而等待后悔越强,预售价格越高,对零售商的收益越有利,因而零售商可以在现售期保持一定的产品缺货率,增强消费者的等待后悔行为。零售商提供退货服务总是优于不提供退货策略,零售商是否对被退回产品再处理进行二次销售主要依赖于被退回产品的再处理成本大小。

This paper suggests that retailer can provide three kinds of advance selling strategies when the demand of products and the valuation of consumers are uncertain:no return allowed,no sale after return and resale after return,and the influence of consumer regret behavior on the retailer’s pre-sale price,order quantity,return amount and pre-sale strategy selection is discussed.The results show thatthe stronger the action regret behavior is,the lower the pre-sale price is,the more unfavorable it is to the retailer’s revenue.The stronger the waiting regret behavior is,the higher the pre-sale price is,the more favorable it is to the retailer’s revenue.Therefore,the retailer can maintain a certain product out-of-stock rate during the regular sale period to enhance consumers’ waiting regret behavior.It is always better for retailers to provide return service than not.Whether retailers resell the returned products depends on the cost of the returned products.