我国天然气消耗量的影响因素分析及预测

Analysis and prediction of the influencing factors of natural gas consumption

基于我国1994~2021年天然气消耗量相关数据,选取可能影响天然气消耗量的23个指标,采用灰色关联分析法分析各指标与天然气消耗量的关联程度,用GM(1,1)和GM(1,N)两种灰色模型进行预测。结果显示,国民生产总值GDP和可使用天然气人口数量与天然气消耗量的关联程度最大,基于4个核心因素建立的的GM(1,4)模型较GM(1,1)能够更好地拟合历史消耗量数据,具有良好预测性能。由此可为中国能源产量结构调整,以及经济产业建设战略布局提供决策参考。

This paper selects 23 indicators that may affect natural gas consumption based on data related to natural gas consumption in China from 1994-2021,and uses gray relational analysis to analyze the degree of correlation between each indicator and natural gas consumption,and uses two gray models,GM(1,1)and GM(1,N),to make predictions.The results show that GDP and the number of people with access to natural gas have the highest correlation with natural gas consumption,and the GM(1,4)model based on the four core factors can better fit the historical consumption data than GM(1,1)and has good predictive performance.This can be used as a reference for the restructuring of China's energy production and the strategic layout of economic and industrial construction.