山东省农业现代化建设现状及发展建议——基于农业劳动力数量

Present Situation and Development Suggestions of Agricultural Modernization in Shandong Province Based on Quantity of Agricultural Labor Force

基于2008-2019年山东省农业就业人口数量,运用Stata软件对影响山东省农业就业人口的因素进行OLS多元线性回归分析。研究结论:化肥施用量、有效耕作面积、农民实际可支配收入3个变量对山东省农业劳动力数量影响最显著,扩大有效耕作面积对山东省吸引农业劳动力起正向影响,而限制化肥施用与农民实际可支配收入增加对山东省农业劳动力增长起反向影响。据此,在山东省提升机械化程度、提高农业就业质量,优化农业空间布局、实施新型城镇化战略,健全惠农强农体系、为农业就业者提供保障等方面实行切实有效的措施,从而推进山东省农业现代化建设。

Based on number of agricultural employed population in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2019,factors affecting agricultural employed population in Shandong Province were analyzed by OLS multiple linear regression using Stata software.Three variables of chemical fertilizer,effective farming area and farmers’actual disposable income had the most significant impact on number of agricultural labor force in Shandong Province.Expanding effective farming area had a positive impact on attracting agricultural labor force in Shandong Province,while limiting use of chemical fertilizer and increase of farmers’actual disposable income had a negative impact on growth of agricultural labor force in Shandong Province.Therefore,degree of mechanization and quality of agricultural employment in Shandong Province should be improved.Spatial distribution of agriculture and implement new urbanization strategy should be optimized.System of benefiting and strengthening agriculture should be improved,and practical and effective measures to provide security for agricultural employees should be implemented to promote construction of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province.