县域劳动力“回流”及其影响因素研究

Research on the “Return” Phenomenon and Influencing Factors of County Labor Force

经济发展水平与劳动力流动具有高度关联性,多年来我国人口呈现“县”向“市”的单向流动,而能否吸引劳动力回流是县域经济发展的关键。采用全国百强县2008—2018年面板数据分析县域经济对劳动力流动的影响,同时将百强县所属区域划为东中西部进行分区域研究,实证检验发现:(1)县域经济发展对外出劳动力的回流具有显著正向促进作用,其中,房价增长率、固定资产投资、医疗卫生等公共服务水平对劳动力回流的影响比乡镇个数减少更为显著;(2)房价增长率、固定资产投资、社会福利水平分别对东、中、西部县域劳动力回流的作用力最大。使用公共财政收入作为县域生产总值的替代变量及进行分时段OLS回归的稳健性检验也证实了上述发现。

The level of economic development is highly correlated with labor mobility. For many years, China population has presented a one-way flow from “county” to “city”, and whether it is possible to attract the labor force to return is critical to the county economic development. The panel data of the top 100 counties from 2008 to 2018 are used to analyze the impact of county economy on labor mobility, and the regions of the top 100 counties are divided into the eastern, central and western parts for regional research. Empirical tests show that:(1) county economic development has a significant positive role in promoting the return of migrant labor, and the growth rate of housing price, fixed asset investment, and the level of public services such as medical and health care play a more significant role in promoting the return of migrant labor than the number of townships;(2) housing price growth rate, fixed asset investment, and social welfare levels have the greatest impact on the return of labor in the eastern, central, and western counties. The use of public fiscal revenue as a substitute variable for county gross product and the robustness test of OLS regression by time period also confirm the above findings.