基于实物期权的新冠疫情下光伏发电项目投资研究

Research on Photovoltaic Investment under the COVID-19 Based on Real Option Method

新型冠状病毒肺炎的爆发对中国光伏发电项目的投资造成了不利影响。为探究新冠疫情对光伏发电项目投资价值的影响,应用实物期权相关理论与方法,考虑了碳交易价格、发电量、发电成本、疫情影响等参数的变化,构建新冠疫情影响下的光伏发电项目投资价值评估模型。基于此,利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法得出光伏发电项目在疫情期间的投资价值变动。研究发现,新冠疫情对中国光伏发电项目的投资价值与投资时机的影响较大,投资者可适当推迟投资以降低疫情影响。

The outbreak of COVID-19 has adversely affected the investment in photovoltaic(PV) power generation projects in China. In order to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the investment value of PV projects, the theories and methods of real options are applied to construct an investment value evaluation model of PV projects under the impact of COVID-19, considering the changes of carbon trading price, power generation, power generation cost and the impact of COVID-19. Monte Carlo simulation method is also used to determine the changes in the investment value of PV projects during the pandemic. The study shows that COVID-19 has a significant impact on investment value and timing of PV projects in China, and investors can appropriately delay investment to reduce the impact of the epidemic.