谁认同“九二共识”?--台湾地区民众认同度的社会学分析

Who Agrees with“the 1992 Consensus”?:A Sociological Analysis of Taiwan’s Public Identity

利用美国杜克大学亚太安全研究中心与台湾政治大学选举研究中心共同执行的“两岸关系和安全调查”资料,分析台湾地区民众对“九二共识”的认同度。研究发现:台湾民众对“九二共识”的认同度与职业、阶层以及居住地域没有直接的关联,一些更容易在两岸交流中获益的职业和阶层并没有更显著地支持“九二共识”,各区域对“九二共识”的认同度也没有呈现“北蓝南绿”现象;年龄是影响“九二共识”认同度的重要因素,年轻群体对“九二共识”的认同度明显低于年长群体,40~49岁的台湾民众是对“九二共识”态度发生变化的关键时期;到大陆次数越多的人,越能感受到“九二共识”的意义,也就越倾向于支持“九二共识”;受教育程度则不具有独立影响力。应审慎看待当前岛内一些宣称“‘九二共识’已没有市场”的民调结果;未来如何在确保“两岸一中”这一核心意涵的前提下创造出一定的模糊空间,仍是我们需要努力的方向。

Using the data of“the Cross-Strait Relations and Security Survey”jointly carried out by the Asia Pacific Security Research Center of Duke University and the Electoral Research Center of Taiwan University of Political Science,this paper analyzes the recognition of“the 1992 Consensus”of people in Taiwan.The study found that the recognition of“the 1992 Consensus”of people in Taiwan was not directly related to the occupation,class and residence.Some occupations and classes that were more likely to benefit from cross-Strait exchanges did not more significantly support“the 1992 Consensus”.The recognition of“the 1992 Consensus”in various areas did not show the phenomenon of“blue in the north,green in the south”.Age is an important factor affecting the recognition of“the 1992 Consensus”.The recognition of the young group to“the 1992 Consensus”is significantly lower than that of the older group.The 40-to-49-year-old people in Taiwan are the key period for the change of their attitude toward“the 1992 Consensus”.The more people who visit the mainland,the more they can feel the significance of“the 1992 Consensus”,and the more they tend to support“the 1992 Consensus”.Education has no independent influence.We should take a cautious look at the consequences of some polls in the Island that claim“there is no market for the 1992 Consensus”.How to create certain vague space in the future under the premise of ensuring the core meaning of“two sides,one China”is still the direction we need to work hard.