新时期亚太合作之路:中国的机遇与挑战

Asia-Pacific Cooperation in the New Era: Opportunities and Challenges for China

从亚太合作的发展历程看,亚太合作存在以下不足:APEC缺乏实质性进展;RCEP和CPTPP路径部分重叠;少数国家抱团;东盟地区论坛被架空。这些不足的根源在于美国对亚太主导权的争夺。新形势下中国与东盟合作有着重大的理论意义、战略意义和现实意义:“一带一路”在东南亚大受欢迎,是对国际合作理论的创新;东盟“中心地位”使其成为维护地区和平与稳定的力量。根据熵增理论,开放的亚太共同体有利于把“蛋糕”做大。越南不太可能替代中国大陆的产业优势。基于黑格尔的“主奴辩证法”,美国难以与中国彻底“脱钩”。展望未来,RCEP可能在贸易增长、人民币国际化、金融营商环境、全产业链竞争等方面,为中国带来利益与风险。未来RCEP如果能吸引印度加入,并制定更高阶的规则,会在与CPTPP的角逐中脱颖而出。

Cooperating at multi-levels and controlling security risks are the inevitable requirements of China’s participation in Asia-Pacific Cooperation in the new era. Reviewing the course of Asia-Pacific Cooperation, there are the following deficiencies: APEC has lacked substantive progress in recent years;RCEP and CPTPP overlap;a few countries hold a group;the ASEAN Regional Forum was elevated. Such problems arose from the competition for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, the cooperation between China and ASEAN has great theoretical, strategic and practical significance.The Belt and Road Initiative is popular in Southeast Asia and an innovation in the theory of international cooperation. ASEAN’s “centrality” makes it a force to maintain regional peace and stability. Southeast Asia has many advantages in terms of geographical location, natural resources, population and digital economy. Looking forward to the Asia-Pacific Cooperation in the new era, China will face the following opportunities and challenges. Firstly, according to the Law of entropy increase, an open Asia-Pacific community is essential to make the“cake”bigger. Secondly, RCEP may bring benefits and risks to China in terms of trade deficit, RMB internationalization, financial business environment and competition in the whole industrial chain. Thirdly, with the construction of the Pan-Asian railway network and People-to-people bond, the Belt and Road has broad prospects in Southeast Asia.