阿塔政权的政治信任与国家建构

Political Trust and State-building for the Afghan Taliban Regime

政治信任是政治参与主体对政治权威的积极或可定性的政治应变、政治信念或政治评价等。政治信任是分析阿富汗政权更迭的一个重要视角:从阿富汗国内来看,塔利班能够几乎不战而胜是因为得到了国内政治力量和民众的信任,而阿富汗政府军几乎没发起有效的抵抗就失去政权,是因为对内没有得到国内政治力量和阿富汗民众的信任,对外则与没有得到美国等西方国家的政治信任有关。未来的阿富汗依旧面临安全局势扑朔迷离,政治、经济、民生发展百废待兴的难题,其中对内能否继续赢得各类政治团体和民众的支持,对外能否得到国际社会的认可和政治信任,则是决定阿富汗政局能否稳固和实现持久和平的关键。同时,政治信任也是理解“新塔利班时代”阿富汗政治发展的一个关键变量。从政治信任的视角对“新塔利班时代”阿富汗社会的政治信任问题进行探讨,应该可以对分析阿富汗政局发展提供一个有益的思路。

On August 15, 2021, after more than 20 years of armed struggle and more than 10 days of almost “destroying the city”, the Afghan Taliban defeated the Afghan government forces and once again took control of the Afghan regime more than 20 years after being overthrown. The Afghan Taliban declared that the war was “over” and subsequently released the list of members of the new government, and Afghanistan entered the “New Taliban Era”. The change of regime in Afghanistan is the result of a combination of internal and external factors, which is not only related to the mutual game of various political forces in the country, but also related to the adjustment of the Afghan policy of the United States and other Western countries. Political Trust is an important perspective for analyzing regime change in Afghanistan: from a domestic point of view, the Taliban can win almost without a fight because they have gained the political trust of domestic political forces and the people, while the Afghan government forces have lost power almost without effective resistance. In the future, Afghanistan is still facing the problem of confusing security situation and political, economic and people’s livelihood development, among which whether it can continue to win the support of various political groups and people at home, and win the recognition and political trust of the international community externally is the key to determining whether the political situation in Afghanistan can be stable and achieve lasting peace. This paper takes political trust as the analysis perspective to explore the issue of political trust in Afghan society in the “New Taliban Era”, and also hopes to provide a useful perspective for understanding the political development of Afghanistan.