2022年安徽省区域性高温和干旱过程综合评估

Comprehensive assessment of regional high temperature and drought processes in Anhui Province in 2022

基于1961—2022年安徽省80个国家气象观测站逐日降水和平均气温资料,利用区域性极端事件客观识别方法识别区域性高温和干旱过程,进一步提取过程历时、影响范围、过程强度指标,并应用于已构建的综合强度评估模型,对2022年高温干旱开展异常气候特征分析和区域性过程综合评价。结果表明:2022年夏季安徽省平均气温较常年同期偏高2.2℃,为1961年以来同期最高;6—9月降水量偏少达4成,为1961年以来同期第四少。持续高温少雨导致安徽省淮河以南出现严重干旱。2022年夏季出现6次区域性高温过程,其中8月1—23日综合强度达“特强”等级,虽不及1966、1967和2013年高温过程,为历史第四强,但年度累计综合强度为1961年以来最强。夏秋季出现2次区域性干旱过程,与1961年以来最强的其他9次区域性伏秋连旱过程相比,截至9月30日,7月28日以来的区域性干旱过程已持续65 d,综合强度等级为“特强”,但不及1966、1967、1978和2019年过程。

Based on the data of daily precipitation and mean temperature from 80 national meteorological stations in Anhui Province from 1961 to 2022,the processes of regional extreme climate events are identified according to the objective identification technique for regional extreme events.Average intensity,duration and average influence range are further extracted,which are applied to establish comprehensive intensity assessment model,and then regional high temperature and drought processes in 2022 are comprehensively evaluated.The results show that the average temperature in Anhui Province in the summer of 2022 is 2.2 ℃ higher than normal,which is the highest in the same period since 1961.The precipitation in 2022 is 40% less than normal,which is the fourth lowest since 1961.Persistent high temperature and little rainfall led to continuous severe drought in summer and fall in the south of the Huaihe River in Anhui Province.There are six regional high temperature processes in the summer of 2022,and the high temperature process from August 1 to 23,2022 has reached the "super strong" level,which rank the fourth in history and is inferior to the high temperature processes in 1966,1967 and 2013.However,the annual cumulative comprehensive intensity of high temperature in 2022 reached 4496,which is the highest since 1961.Two regional drought processes occurred in the summer and autumn of 2022.Compared with the nine strongest regional drought processes in summer and autumn since 1961,by the end of September 30,2022 the regional drought process since July 28 has lasted 65 days,and the intensity level is "super strong",which is inferior to the processes in 1966,1967,1978 and 2019.