湖南省城市宜居水平时空演化及其预测模拟

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Prediction Simulation of Urban Livable Level in Hunan Province

建设宜居城市已成为我国“十四五”规划和二○三五年远景目标的重要任务。本文综合运用修正后熵值法、非参数Kernel密度估计模型、冷热点分析和灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对2008—2019年湖南省城市宜居水平的时空演化特征及其未来发展趋势进行多尺度探索。结果显示:(1)湖南省城市宜居水平在时间趋势上呈波动上升态势,由2008年的0.139上升至2019年的0.395,但整体平均分值仅为0.255。(2)湖南省城市宜居水平在空间上呈“东高西低,北高南低”的分布特征,形成了以长沙为中心的高值簇和以怀化为中心的低值簇。(3)湖南省城市宜居水平排名在经济、社会、生活和生态4个维度上存在显著的空间差异,尚未有城市其4个维度得分均排名第一,各城市的宜居水平在不同维度上均存在短板。(4)未来湖南省城市宜居水平呈现出持续提升态势,但空间上仍呈现出“长株潭(0.720)>湘南(0.569)>洞庭湖(0.627)>大湘西(0.523)”的分布特征。

The construction of livable cities has become an important task in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the Long-Range Objectives through the Year 2035.Based on the modified entropy method,non-parametric Kernel density estimation model,cold and hot spot analysis and grey prediction GM(1,1)model,the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and future development trend of urban livable level in Hunan province from 2008 to 2019 were explored on multi-scales in this paper.The results show as follows.(1)The livable levels of cities in Hunan province showed a temporal trend of increase in fluctuation,which rose from 0.139 in 2008 to 0.395 in 2019,with the overall average score of only 0.255.(2)Spatially,it presented the distribution characteristics of“high in the east,low in the west,high in the north and low in the south”,forming a high value cluster centered on Changsha and a low value cluster centered on Huaihua.(3)There were significant spatial differences in the ranking of city livable level in the four dimensions of economy,society,life and ecology.Furthermore,no city ranked first in all the four dimensions,and all cities had shortcomings in the livable level.(4)The livable levels of cities in Hunan province will continue to improve in the future,and the spatial distribution characteristics will still exhibit“Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration(0.720)>Southern Hunan(0.569)>Dongting Lake(0.627)>Western Hunan(0.523)”.