中国人力资本对产业结构转型的影响研究

The Impact of Human Capital on Industrial Structure Transformation in China

产业结构转型驱动经济高质量发展,人力资本是产业结构转型的重要支撑。本研究从产业结构高级化、合理化和绿色化3个维度对中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的产业结构转型水平进行测算,运用双向固定效应模型分析中国人力资本存量和人力资本结构对产业结构转型的影响以及影响差异性,结果表明:(1)产业结构转型水平呈上升趋势,产业结构绿色化指数呈现小幅度的上升趋势和“东高西低”、“南高北低”的空间分异特征,地区间差异有增大的趋势;(2)从全国尺度看,结合中国实际情况的Jorgenson-Fraumeni(以下简称J-F方法)收入计算法测度的人力资本存量与产业结构高级化、合理化和绿色化均呈显著的正相关关系,人力资本结构仅与产业结构高级化呈显著正相关关系,对产业结构合理化和绿色化的影响尚不明显,我国产业结构转型更依靠人力资本存量的提升,而非人力资本结构的优化;(3)人力资本对产业结构转型的影响具有空间异质性,东部地区的人力资本存量和人力资本结构均对产业结构转型有正向影响,中、西部地区人力资本存量对产业结构转型有一定的促进作用,而人力资本结构对产业结构转型的影响均不显著。研究提出优化人力资本结构、制定差异化的发展政策等建议,对推进区域产业结构转型具有一定的借鉴和参考价值。

Industrial structure transformation drives the high-quality economic development,and the human capital is an important factor for the industrial structure transformation.This paper measured the level of industrial structural transformation in 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)in China from three dimensions including industrial structure upgrading,rationalization and greening.On this basis,a two-way fixed effects model was used to analyze the impact of human capital stock,human capital structure and their variability on the industrial structural transformation.The results show as follows.(1)The index of industrial structure transformation keeps a steady rising trend.There is a small upward trend in the greening index of industrial structure that this paper concerns.The greening index of industrial structure shows the spatial differentiation characteristics of“high in the east and low in the west”and“high in the south and low in the north”,with the trend of increasing differences between regions.(2)The human capital stock measured by the J-F income method,which combines the actual situation in China,has a positive impact on the industrial structure upgrading,rationalization and greening.The structure of human capital is only significantly and positively correlated with the industrial structure upgrading,while the influence on the industrial structure rationalization and greening is not obvious.(3)The impact of human capital on the industrial structural transformation is spatially heterogeneous.Both human capital stock and human capital structure have positive impacts on the industrial structural transformation in eastern regions.The human capital stock in central and western regions has a certain promotion effect on the industrial structural transformation,while the impact of human capital structure on the industrial structural transformation is not significant.This paper proposes an optimizing human capital structure and formulating different development policies,which have certain reference and value for promoting the transformation of regional industrial structure.