人工智能有助于增强出口稳定性吗--基于质量提升机制的视角

Does Artificial Intelligence Help to Enhance Export Stability:From the Perspective of Quality Upgrading Mechanism

在国内外经济环境日趋复杂的情形下,稳出口已成为稳增长的重要支撑。本文在理论分析的基础上,采用2000-2015年中国海关数据库和工业企业数据库的匹配数据,运用离散时间生存模型考察了人工智能应用对以出口持续时间衡量的出口稳定性的影响。研究发现,人工智能对出口稳定性具有显著的增强作用,且增强效果在技术水平较低的贸易关系上尤为明显;在贸易关系的持续过程中,人工智能的引入可以通过直接提升产品质量、降低产品质量衰减速度的方式,降低贸易关系的失败概率,增强企业的出口稳定性。

With the domestic and international economic environment becoming increasingly complicated,export stability plays an important role in maintaining China′s steady economic growth.Based on theoretical analysis and the matching data of China Customs Database and Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database from 2000 to 2015,this paper adopts the discrete-time survival model to examine the impact of artificial intelligence(AI)on export stability which is measured by the duration of trade relationship.The findings show that application of AI results in a significant enhancement on export stability,which is particularly obvious in trade relations with low technical levels.In the duration of trade relations,the application of AI may reduce the failure probability of trade relations and enhance the export stability of enterprises by directly improving product quality and reducing the decay rate of product quality.