西南民族地区规模性返贫风险及其防范机制研究

Research on the Risk of Large-Scale Poverty Relapse in Southwestern Ethnic Areas and Its Prevention Mechanisms

西南民族地区是传统集中连片贫困区域,后脱贫时代的脱贫成果巩固和乡村振兴仍然面临严峻挑战。脆弱的农户生计资本、相对贫瘠的自然资源、未形成规模优势的农业生产、反复无常的疫情风险等,给巩固脱贫成果和全面乡村振兴带来挑战,西南民族地区的规模性返贫风险依然存在。与个体农户的家庭突发风险不同,规模性返贫风险具有涉及人口数量大、覆盖地区广、发生机率高、溢出风险多元及难以防范等特征。民族地区的规模性返贫风险必须以预防为主,在巩固脱贫成果的同时注重扶贫治理的长效机制。规模性返贫风险防范首要积极建立巩固脱贫成果与乡村振兴的有效衔接机制;其次应依托乡村数字化治理平台进行新脱贫人口的返贫预警系统;另外还需在民族地区建构托底发展型的社会政策体系,保障民族地区民生事业的全面可持续发展;最后应建立上下联动的民族共同体发展格局,提升民族地区韧性发展集体规模优势。

On February 25, 2021, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the National Summary and Commendation Conference for Poverty Alleviation that shaking off poverty is not the finish line,but a starting point of a new life and new endeavor. There still seems to be a long way to go to solve the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development,narrow the development gap between urban and rural areas,and achieve all-around human development and common prosperity for all.Therefore,in a historical context during which an ecological civilization,the consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements, and rural revitalization are promoted simultaneously,this study shows that an effective combination of consolidating poverty alleviation achievements and rural revitalization has become an important part of current rural work in China.The southwest ethnic areas-suffering from a relatively backward economy,frequent natural disasters,and insufficient means of production-seem to make up a traditional contiguous poverty-stricken region. The consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements and rural revitalization in the postpoverty alleviation era still appear to face severe challenges. This article publishes findings demonstrating the fragile livelihood capital of farmers,relatively barren natural resources, agricultural production without scale advantages,and volatile epidemic risks pose challenges to the consolidation of successful poverty alleviation and extensive rural revitalization. The relatively disadvantages in natural endowments, local residents’ capability, market development,as well as other multiple risks have become inducing factors for large-scale falling back into the margins of society,the group poverty relapse, differential scale poverty return,and spillover scale poverty return in the southwestern ethnic minority areas.Different from family sudden risks of single farmers,the widespread poverty relapse risks have the following characteristics: They involve large populations,cover wide areas,have a high occurrence probability and multiple spillover risks,and appear to be difficult to prevent. Therefore,study results indicate that in order to effectively prevent large-scale risks of transitioning back into poverty in the ethnic areas of southwestern China,and to achieve the goal of inclusive,affluent,and common prosperity,the focus should be both on prevention and a long-term mechanism of poverty alleviation and governance while consolidating already achieved poverty alleviation. To prevent the risk of recurring poverty on a large scale,first of all,this journal article suggests the following conclusions:1) one should actively establish an effective connection mechanism to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and rural revitalization : 2)one ought to form an action system with the goal of poverty alleviation and wealth accumulation;3)one should use rural digital governance platforms to carry out a poverty relapse early warning system for the newly lifted out of poverty. These platforms should scientifically pursue the prevention of any return to poverty on a large scale;4) in addition,findings show it is necessary to construct a development-oriented social policy system in ethnic areas to ensure comprehensive and sustainable development of people’s livelihood in ethnic regions;5) finally, an ethnic community development pattern that is vertically linked should be established to enhance the collective scale advantage of resilient development in ethnic minority areas.