共享单车需求预测与停放点布局策略研究--以广州市增城区为例

Research on Demand Forecasting and Docking Station Layout Strategy of Bikesharing:A Case Study of Zengcheng District in Guangzhou

在共享经济的大背景下,共享单车逐渐成为现代交通体系的重要组成部分,在影响城市居民日常出行的同时,对城市管理构成新的挑战。如何根据地方发展需求精准预测共享单车需求量,合理布局停放点,是社会发展过程中必须面对的难题。文章以广州市增城区为例,基于共享单车出行数据,分析共享单车发展的时空间特征,并提出共享单车需求预测的思路、流程与停放点布局的策略方法,在此基础上,提出共享单车管理模式建议,为合理控制共享单车规模、优化共享单车布点规划提供有益参考。

In the background of sharing economy,bicycle-sharing has gradually become one of the impo rtant par ts of mode rn tr anspo rtation system,which affecting the daily tr avel of ur ban r esidents while simultaneously posing a new challenge to ur ban management.How to for ecast the demand of bicycle-sha ring acc ur ately and arr ange the docking station reasonably in the light of local demand are the difficult problems that must be faced in social development.Taking Zengcheng Dist rict of Guangzhou as an example,and on the basis of bicycle-sha ring tr avel data,this pape r analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of bicycle-sharing,and puts forward the thought and process of forecasting the demand of bicycle-sharing,and the layout strategy of the bicycle-sharing docking station.Finally,the management model of bicycle-sharing is put forward based on the r esea rch findings.The r esults can pro vide useful r efe rences for controlling the scale of bicycle-sharing and optimizing the layout of bicycle-sharing.