“减税降费”对制造业间接税有效税率的影响研究--基于投入产出税收价格模型的分析

The Impact of“Tax Reduction and Fee Reduction”on the Effective Tax Rate of Indirect Tax in Manufacturing Industry:An Analysis Based on Tax Price Input-output Model

本文选取2010-2019年全国分产业、分税种数据,利用RAS法延长可用投入产出表,测算制造业有效税率。结果如下:第一,“减税降费”使制造业间接税有效税率降低了3.07%,其中2016年全面“营改增”的减税效应小于2019年制造业留抵退税与增值税一般税率下调的减税效应;第二,制造业间接税的减税效应是“营改增”扩围、增值税与消费税变动和税负转嫁综合的结果;第三,资源密集型制造业在改革中获益最大,劳动密集型制造业获益最小;第四,“减税降费”后,各类型制造业间接税有效税率差异进一步缩小。

With the data of national industries and tax categories from 2010 to 2019,this paper extends the available input-output table RAS method to calculate the effective tax rate of manufacturing industry.The results are as follows.First,the“tax reduction and fee reduction”has reduced the effective tax rate of indirect tax of manufacturing industry by 3.07%.Specially,the tax reduction effect of the comprehensive“replacing business tax with value-added tax”in 2016 is smaller than that of the manufacturing tax rebate and the reduction of the general tax rate of value-added tax in 2019.Second,the tax reduction effect of indirect tax in manufacturing industry is the result of the expansion of“replacing business tax with value-added tax”,the changes of value-added tax and consumption tax,and the transfer of tax burden.Third,the resource intensive manufacturing industry benefited the most from the reform,while the labor-intensive manufacturing industry benefited the least.Finally,after the“tax reduction and fee reduction”,the difference in the effective tax rate of indirect tax on various types of manufacturing industry further narrowed.