考虑区块链技术投资的港航供应链决策研究

Research on investment strategy of shipping supply chain based on blockchain technology

区块链技术作为新基建的重要组成部分,是近年来涌现出的新技术之一。然而,区块链技术在航运业中如何应用,是否应当引入依旧是业界持续讨论的话题。本文综合考虑区块链去中心化的技术特征与港航供应链成员的投资选择,构建了承运人和港口的港航供应链,使用Stackelberg博弈模型,从航运市场价格和数量及其航运市场的经济效应等方面探讨了是否中心化和是否投资的组合策略问题。此外还考虑了政府补贴、多参数分析、投资效率和社会效应等问题。研究表明:航运市场价格受到系统中心化结构和投资策略的影响;在满足投资区块链技术的前提下,投资区块链技术且系统结构为中心化结构时,企业的终端市场需求达到最高;使用非中心化结构时,满足承运人投资条件可以使得收益达到最大。进一步讨论可以发现,政府的不同补贴水平可以潜在影响企业的投资决策;顾客对系统透明度的敏感度会影响企业投资策略的选择和潜在系统结构;就投资行为而言,港口投资且为中心化结构时,投资效率最高;从社会效应和经济效应考虑,承运人投资且非中心化或不投资且非中心化的结果,在一定的条件下可以达成最优策略的潜在选择。

Blockchain technology is imperceptibly changing the existing business model.Recently,in addition to the applications of blockchain technology in medical treatment,government administration,and food traceability,there are also some examples in the shipping domain.For example,IBM and Maersk have jointly established a blockchain shipping solution(TradeLens)for digital services;Shanghai Port Group and COSCO Shipping Group have achieved transparent and paperless processes by using blockchain technology.Therefore,the introduction of blockchain technology into the shipping supply chain has not only attracted the attention of shipping enterprises but also become an important research direction of double-chain integration.As is known to all,blockchain technology has the characteristic of decentralization,which lies in the innovation of business model and transforms the original centralized decision-making structure into a relatively non-centralized supply chain network structure.However what impact does this approach have on the operation of supply chain enterprises?In this background,considering the technical characteristics of whether the blockchain is centralized and the investment choice of shipping supply chain members,this paper constructs the shipping supply chain including a carrier and a port.Using the Stackelberg game model,this paper discusses the combination strategies of whether to centralize and whether to invest from the aspects of price,quantity,and economic effect of shipping market.Specifically,this paper explores the decentralization and investment of blockchain technology in three aspects.Firstly,by constructing the game players,objective function,and investment strategy sets and describing the calculation rules,solutions of the corresponding decision variables are finally obtained.Secondly,the paper analyzes the price,quantity,and economic effect of shipping market using the optimal solutions of different scenarios.Among them,the economic effect includes the marginal and total profit of shipping enterprises so that the optimal strategies and equilibrium strategies are obtained.And thirdly,further analysis is conducted from the government subsidy,multiple parameters,investment efficiency,and social effect to detect the optimal investment and operation strategies under different conditions so as to provide a rational operation plan.Such variations are designed to test the robustness of the results as well as enriching the research.The results show that the shipping price is influenced by the centralized structure of the system and investment strategy.on the premise that the system is centralized and the blockchain technology is invested,the terminal market demand of enterprises reaches the highest;for a decentralized structure,the benefits will be maximized if the investment conditions of the carrier are met.Further discussions reveal that:different levels of government subsidies can potentially affect the investment decisions of the enterprises;customers′sensitivity to system transparency will affect the choice of investment strategies and the potential system structure of enterprises;as far as the investment behavior is concerned,the investment efficiency is the highest if the port invests in the blockchain technology with a centralized structure;from the perspective of social and economic effects,the carrier′s behaviors of investment and decentralization or non-investment and decentralization can achieve the optimization under certain conditions.The management implications are provided as follows.On the one hand,the centralized and decentralized business models of blockchain technology actually mean a change of power in decision-making.The centralized business model of port investment helps to improve the investment efficiency and realize the scenarios suitable for port blockchain application.As a key node in the shipping supply chain,the carrier′s investment in the blockchain is more conducive to meeting the service needs of consumers and fulfilling the carrier′s service functions.Therefore,the choice of whether to adopt a centralized system structure and whether to choose investment(and investment subject)should take the purpose into consideration,which is reflected by the marginal profit or total profit.In addition,when investing in blockchain technology,the investment subject of the optimal strategy should first consider its criticality,that is,whether it is in a core position or a key link node.And then,considering the investment of blockchain technology will be more beneficial to forming a reasonable investment plan,increasing the transparency of the supply chain system,and improving the overall decision-making efficiency of the supply chain.On the other hand,both carrier and port investment should aim at enhancing the system transparency so that enterprises can have a reasonable cost when investing.