江苏省六城市空气质量健康指数效果验证

Validity analysis of Air Quality Health Index in six cities of Jiangsu Province,China

目的采用中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所(环境所)开发的空气质量健康指数(AQHI)指数构建方法,构建常州、淮安、南京、泰州、无锡、扬州市AQHI,并验证其与空气质量指数(AQI)一致性及健康风险预测能力。方法利用文献报道的中国空气PM_(2.5)、O_(3)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)与总死亡的暴露-反应系数、各城市日均死亡数及2015—2017年各城市四种污染物的日均值浓度,对各城市分别构建相应的AQHI。分析6个城市AQHI风险等级分布特征,并比较AQHI和AQI对不同健康结局的指示能力。结果6个城市AQHI低风险和中风险等级累计占比均大于90%。随着6个城市AQI等级升高,AQHI等级也随之升高,无互斥的结果,总体趋势一致。每增加一个风险级别,6个城市5种死因结局(非意外总死亡、心血管疾病死亡、中风疾病死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和慢阻肺死亡)AQHI所致风险增加的百分比较AQI均更高,敏感性分析显示模型基本稳健。结论AQHI的健康风险指示能力高于AQI。

Objective To construct an Air Quality Health Index(AQHI)using the method developed by National Institute of Environmental Health,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention for Changzhou,Huai’an,Nanjing,Taizhou,Wuxi,and Yangzhou of Jiangsu Province,China,and to verify its consistency with Air Quality Index(AQI)and health risk prediction ability.Methods A region-specific AQHI was constructed for each city using the exposure-response coefficients of PM_(2.5),O_(3),NO_(2),and SO_(2)with total deaths in China reported in the literature,the daily average number of deaths in each city,and the daily average mass concentrations of the four pollutants in each city in 2015—2017.The distribution characteristics of AQHI risk levels in the six cities were analyzed,and the ability of AQHI and AQI to indicate different health outcomes was compared.Results The cumulative proportions of low and medium AQHI risk levels in the six cities all exceeded 90%.The AQHI levels increased with increase in the AQI levels of the six cities,and the result were not mutually exclusive,with a consistent overall trend.Each increase in the risk level was associated with a higher percentage increase in AQHI risks compareid with AQI risks for each of the five causes of death outcomes(total non-accidental mortality,cardiovascular mortality,stroke mortality,respiratory mortality,and chronic obstructive pulmonary mortality)in the all six cities.Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is basically robust.Conclusion AQHI has a higher ability to indicate health risks than AQI.