网络谣言传播的动力学建模及其平衡点稳定性分析

Dynamic modeling and equilibrium stability analysis of networks rumor propagation

针对网络时代特点将网民分为无知者、传谣者和智者三类,借鉴传染病动力学建模方法建立一类网络谣言传播模型,应用常微分方程稳定性理论分析模型的边界平衡点和正平衡点的稳定性,并通过数值计算模拟谣言传播的动力学行为.结果表明:只要智者加强联系无知者,及时告知突发事件真相并给予正确引导,提升无知者辨别是非的能力,使其尽可能做到不信谣、不传谣,从而控制谣言传播者的传播率,才能有效控制谣言传播;网民对谣言兴趣的衰减以及政府部门的干预都可有效控制谣言的传播.

According to the characteristics of the internet,internet users are divided into three categories:the ignorant,the rumer spreader and the sage.By using the method of epidemic modeling,a new network rumor propagation model is established.The author gives the stability of the equilibria of the model by using the stability theory and method of ordinary differential equations,and simulates the dynamic behavior of the rumor propagation with the help of numerical computations.The results show that as long as the sage strengthen contact with the ignorant,timely inform the truth of emergency and give correct guidance,improve the ability of the ignorant to distinguish between right and wrong,make them as far as possible not to believe and spread rumors,so as to control the spread rate of rumor spreader,the rumor spread can be effectively controlled.In addition,the decline of Internet users′interest in rumors and the intervention of government departments can effectively control the spread of rumors.